Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: man-made warming “extremely likely,”

This in from MSN news page Scientists have strict guidelines and peer reviews so when they use the term “extremely likely” it is serious stuff, not to be taken lightly nor randomly denied by ordinary folk.  The government of Canada is comprised of ordinary folk so perhaps NOW they’ll get the message and begin to turn their efforts toward developing good clean sustainable sources of energy and away from fossil fuels.

Top climate scientists set greenhouse gas cap to limit climate change

A view of a coal-burning power plant during daybreak in Xiangfan, central China's Hubei province, June 25, 2006. China has a key role to play in the drive to convert the world to a low-carbon economy, according to John Ashton, set to travel the world as Britain's first Special Representative on Climate Change.   CHINA OUT   REUTERS/Stringer: A view of a coal-burning power plant during daybreak in Xiangfan, central China's Hubei province, June 25, 2006. China has a key role to play in the drive to convert the world to a low-carbon economy, according to John Ashton, set to travel the world as Britain's first Special Representative on Climate Change.   CHINA OUT   REUTERS/Stringer (CHINA)                                          CHINA

A view of a coal-burning power plant during daybreak in Xiangfan, central China’s Hubei province, June 25, 2006. China has a key role to play in the drive to convert the world to a low-carbon economy, according to John Ashton, set to travel the world as Britain’s first Special Representative on Climate Change.   CHINA OUT   REUTERS/Stringer (CHINA)

A group of top climate scientists found in a new report that human beings need to limit all man-made carbon emissions below a total of 1 trillion tons in order to limit climate change – and noted that the planet had already reached half that amount by 2011.

Calling man-made warming “extremely  likely,” the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  (IPCC) used the strongest words yet on the issue as it adopted its  assessment on the state of the climate system.

“It’s been accepted,” Jonathan Lynn, spokesman for the IPCC, told reporters  of a final summary for policymakers approved at the end of the week-long meeting  in Stockholm.

In its previous assessment, in 2007, the U.N.-sponsored panel said it was  “very likely” that global warming was man-made.

It now says the evidence has grown thanks to more and better observations, a  clearer understanding of the climate system and improved models to analyze the  impact of rising temperatures.

“Our assessment of the science finds that the atmosphere and ocean have  warmed, the amount of snow and ice has diminished, the global mean sea level has  risen and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased,” said Qin Dahe,  co-chair of the working group that wrote the report.

The full 2,000-page report isn’t  going to be released until Monday, but a summary for policymakers with the key  findings was published Friday. It contained few surprises as many of the findings had been  leaked in advance.

As expected, the IPCC raised its projections of the rise in sea levels to  10-32 inches (26-82 centimeters) by the end of the century. The previous report  predicted a rise of 7-23 inches (18-59 centimeters).

The IPCC assessments are important because they form the scientific basis of  U.N. negotiations on a new climate deal. Governments are supposed to finish that  agreement in 2015, but it’s unclear whether they will commit to the emissions  cuts that scientists say will be necessary to keep the temperature below a limit  at which the worst effects of climate change can be avoided.

Using four scenarios with different emissions controls, the report projected  that global average temperatures would rise by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees C by the end  of the century. That’s 0.5-8.6 F.

Only the two lower scenarios, which were based on significant cuts in CO2  emissions, came in below the 2-degree C (3.6 F) limit that countries have set as  their target in the climate talks to avoid the worst impacts of warming.

At this point, emissions keep rising mainly due to rapid growth in China and  other emerging economies. They say rich countries should take the lead on  emissions cuts because they’ve pumped carbon into the atmosphere for  longer.

Climate activists said the report should spur governments to action.

“There are few surprises in this report but the increase in the confidence  around many observations just validates what we are seeing happening around us,”  said Samantha Smith, of the World Wildlife Fund.

One of the most controversial subjects in the report was how to deal with a  purported slowdown in warming in the past 15 years. Climate skeptics say this  “hiatus” casts doubt on the scientific consensus on climate change.

Many governments had objections over how the issue was treated in earlier  drafts and some had called for it to be deleted altogether.

In the end, the IPCC made only a brief mention of the issue in the summary  for policymakers, stressing that short-term records are sensitive to natural  variability and don’t in general reflect long-term trends.

Almost 200 governments have agreed to work out a U.N. deal by the end of 2015  to combat global warming, partly by shifting from fossil fuels towards renewable  energies.

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